
image: adventurous wench
Change alone is eternal, perpetual, immortal - Arthur Schopenhauer
Paradoxically, the one constant in life is change. Nothing stays still, everything is in flux.
We are at a pivotal time in history, there are periods when it moves slowly and there are periods of acceleration. The acceleration comes at the beginning and end of particular cycles, phases or epochs. It’s to do with octave changes.
The order that we have become accustomed to in our lives is shifting. Events do, from time to time, catch up with and overtake our perceptions. This is when there is shock, tumult, social disorder and even revolution. We live in interesting times.
Take the pinnacle of any civilization you know of, from the Romans to the Mayans (that’s one of their cities above) and mostly it would have been inconceivable to the people of that civilization that it would end. Yet they do, they pass. The jungles of the planet are dotted with the remnants of once great cities. Where once thriving cultures existed and dramas played out, dreams fulfilled, ambitions thwarted there are now forgotten ruins.
There are no guarantees about our culture. It exhibits no special characteristics that give it immunity from such things. There are even those who hold the view that our culture’s demise would be a good thing. Consider Winston Churchill who was acutely aware of democracy’s shortcomings but realised that it was the best available system of government. Look at the alternatives, oligarchy such as in post Soviet Russia, Islamist systems such as the Taliban still sniffing around Afghanistan, totalitarian regimes that wish to get inside the minds of their populations and police their thinking. This blog is unlikely to be read in China.
So while our culture is not without imperfection, what would you have in its place? It allows a degree of freedom of thinking and seeks to propagate a system of personal liberties that empower the individual to pursue their own path. These are massively important things. I do not defend all that we do, I see the condition of many of our citizens and their severely curtailed or diminished horizons and I see there is work to be done. But crucially I see there is optimism too.
We have something worth upholding that has freed us of the dogmas of theocracy, the terrors of totalitarianism. Yet familiarity may expose the fragility of that which we have in our grasp, the freedom to think and do as we choose. Of course it brings responsibility and I believe that it is the responsibility of each of us to cherish and value these things and to make it our business to develop as far as we possibly can in order to colonise the darkness of ignorance.
The saying goes, ‘you don’t know what you’ve got til it’s gone’. we do not realise where we are, the fortune that graces us all. Major shifts are beginning, our reliance upon fossil fuels is going to be seriously compromised and the world we have come to accept as the norm will have to change if it is to have any chance of survival. These are not wild eyed premonitions, they are simply the foregone conclusions of the law of supply and demand.
China and India, or as economists call them ‘Chindia’, are growing at a remarkable pace, in economic terms, and they require huge resources to sustain their growth. We in the developed world can only watch as resources we had almost exclusive access to are being demanded by a new consumer. Fossil fuels are finite, oil and coal will run out eventually and the pace of this will increase as more of the world’s population claim a place at the table of plenty.
Why is this relevant to happiness? As the constraints upon our system of doing things in the developed world increase, essentially through such things as inflation, the mechanisms of monetary control, decreased spending power there will be greater unrest among the populations of the developed world. There will, inevitably, be scapegoats, social cohesion will break down in various ways and there will be a clamour for change.
Change is inevitable but it has to be an enlightened change as opposed to the revolutionary fervour that rips everything up and starts again only to create a different structure that never fulfils its promise and abandons the best of what it has replaced. Unhappiness may be perceived as the absence of certainty and in uncertain times this will be a feature; people will become more distressed as they try to make sense of the events they see unfolding. The huge leaps that have occurred since the Industrial Revolution have been driven by fossil fuels and that will have to change, it’s simply no longer sustainable.
In evolutionary terms this has been a roller coaster ride but a short one. Human societies have existed in recorded history for tens of thousands of years and this current wave will pass just as Egypt, Babylon, Sumeria and the Moghul Empires passed.
Where are you in all this? You who read this now and can only feel very small and insignificant, surely, in the face of such considerations. Well, here’s the most remarkable thing of all - where our societies, cultures and civilizations flounder upon the rocky coastline of change, the one constant is us. All of these lost civilizations with their learning, wisdom, skills and technologies were created by people. Humans adapt, societies do not and are discarded.
There are huge opportunities for human growth and development at this time. It’s a little like passing through a birth canal, there is both opportunity and risk involved but ultimately there is only one way to go. Ground yourself in things that are permanent, things that are temporary will evaporate like dew in the morning sun.
It is a little frightening but also incredibly challenging, it will stretch those who emerge from the coming transition and leave them as the beneficiaries of a remarkable event in human history. What has happened in the past century and the post war era has been without precedent, that unprecedented change continues and a completely different world awaits us.
Do not forget those things that are important. Do not abandon the things that have helped us emerge blinking into the light. It is a time to leap into the unknown with the certainty that we have the nascent genius necessary to create something remarkable.